海外邦

Irish economy to shrink by between 0.4% and 1.1% this year, saysCentral Bank爱尔兰央行表示今年经济将萎缩0.4%至1.1%

The latest forecast isbuoyed by the ‘resilience’ of Irish exports.爱尔兰出口的“弹性”提升了最新的预测。

THE IRISH ECONOMY has somewhat rebounded since the start of the pandemic but the recovery has been “partial” and “uneven”, according to the Central Bank. 爱尔兰经济自疫情爆发以来有所反弹，但据中央银行称复苏是“部分的”和“不平衡的”。

Published this morning, the Central Bank’s fourth and final Quarterly Economic Bulletin for 2020 highlights the fact that in many parts of the economy, activity remains well below pre-pandemic levels. 今天上午出版的中央银行第四期也是最后一期的《2020年季度经济公报》强调了这样一个事实：许多地区的经济仍然远远低于疫情前的水平。

Consumer spending and construction activity have recovered strongly since the reopening of the economy. 自经济重新开放以来消费者支出和建筑活动已强劲复苏。

The Covid-adjusted unemployment rate is now expected to average out at 15.1% of the labour force this year — down from 29% in April — before falling to 11.1% in the first quarter of next year. 目前调整后的失业率预计15.1%——从4月份的29%下降到明年第一季度的11.1%。

But the Central Bank the Central Bank noted a “strong divergence” between general demand levels at home and the performance of Irish exports abroad. 但中央银行注意到国内总需求水平与爱尔兰海外出口表现之间存在“强烈差异”。

On the one hand, it expects domestic demand to fall by at least 7% for the full year. 一方面它预计全年国内需求将至少下降7%。

On the other, the Central Bank said that the resilience of Irish export growth has buoyed economic output overall and “significantly mitigated the fall in GDP” experienced in the first half of the year. 另一方面中央银行表示爱尔兰出口增长的弹性提高了整体经济产出并“大大缓解了上半年国内生产总值的下降”。

“The resilience of exports reflects strong growth in high-value exports of pharmaceuticals, computer processors and business services,” according to the Central Bank. “出口的弹性反映在药品、计算机处理器和商业服务的高价值出口的强劲增长，”中央银行表示。 

Consequently, it has dramatically revised upwards its full-year forecast for Irish GDP from a contraction of at least 9% predicted in its July bulletin to just 0.4% in its most recent bulletin.因此大幅上调了对爱尔兰GDP的全年预测，从7月份公告中预测的至少下降9%上调至最近一期公告中的仅0.4%。

Irish GDP is then expected to increase by 3.4% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2021 in the Central Bank’s baseline scenario. 爱尔兰GDP预计在2022年将增长3.4%，在2021年央行的基准情景下将增长4.7%。

Mark Cassidy, Director of Economics and Statistics at the Central Bank said that this would mean just one year of lost GDP growth, representing “a better performance than any other advanced economies that I’m aware of”. 中央银行经济和统计主任马克·卡西迪(Mark Cassidy)表示，这将意味着GDP增长只会下降一年 “比我所知道的任何其他发达经济体表现都要好”。

This baseline scenario assumes that efforts to contain the virus are only partially successful over the coming months and that some targeted “containment measures” have to be put in place. 这一基线设想假设在今后几个月中，遏制病毒的努力仅取得部分成功，必须采取一些有针对性的“遏制措施”。

“Thetype of additional restrictions imposed in a number of counties during Augustand September broadly fit with this assumption,” the report says.报告说：“8月和9月期间在一些州实施的额外管控措施大致符合这一假设。

In a more severe scenario,the Central Bank “envisages a strong resurgence of the pandemic, leading to therestoration of widespread and stringent containment measures for a moreprolonged period.”在更严重的情况下中央银行“设想这一流行病的强劲复苏导致在更长的时间内恢复广泛和严格的管控措施。”

Italso assumes a general decline in international trading conditions as a resultof a resurgence of the virus abroad.它还假定由于病毒在国外死灰复燃，国际贸易普遍下降。

In this scenario, GDP isprojected to fall by 1.1% this year and a further 0.3% next year.在这种情况下，预计今年GDP将下降1.1%，明年将进一步下降0.3%。

Asked if the containmentmeasures referred to in the model were similar to the Level 5 restrictionsrecommended by the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET), Mark Cassidy,Director of Economics and Statistics at the Central Bank, said that it wasimpossible to speculate what restrictions will be put in place by thegovernment.当被问及模型中提到的管控措施是否类似于国家公共卫生应急小组(NPHET)建议的5级限制时，中央银行经济和统计主任马克·卡西迪(MarkCassidy)表示无法推测政府将实施哪些限制。

Buthe said that while a reintroduction of more stringent measures would likelylead to the shutdown of parts of the economy, “we do think that experienceshows it would recover quite quickly after that.但他表示，虽然重新引入更严格的措施可能会导致部分经济的关闭但“我们确实认为经验表明在此之后经济将很快复苏。

“So in comparison with oursevere scenario, we think that the outlook for this year will be somewhatbetween the baseline and the severe scenario. But we think for next year, wewill still be much closer to the baseline.” “因此与我们的严峻形势相比，我们认为今年的前景将介于基线和严峻形势之间。但我们认为明年我们仍将更接近基准线。”

—— Brexit 英国退欧 ——

Both the Central Bank’sbaseline and severe scenarios assume that Britain and the European Union failto reach a post-Brexit free trade agreement deal before 31 December.中央银行的基准线和严重的情况都建立在假设英国和欧盟未能在12月31日前达成退欧自由贸易协定。

Thiswould mean, the Central Bank explained, “a sudden and disruptive transition toa World Trade Organisation trading relationship,” which could shave 2% offIrish GDP in 2021.央行解释说这将意味着“突然向世界贸易组织贸易关系破坏性过渡”2021年将爱尔兰GDP可能削减2%。

This default arrangementwould result in new tariffs being applied to goods imported from the EU to theUK from 1 January, 2021.这种安排将导致从2021年1月1日起对从欧盟进口到英国的货物适用新的关税。

“Although the share ofIrish goods exports to the UK has declined over time and currently stands ataround 10 per cent, the agri-food sector is still heavily reliant on the UKmarket,” the report explains.报告解释说：“虽然爱尔兰出口到英国的商品份额随着时间的推移有所下降，目前约为10%，但农业食品部门仍然严重依赖英国市场。

“Estimatessuggest that applying the UK’s global tariff schedule to Irish exports to GreatBritain would result in a tariff cost of between €1.35 to €1.5 billion. Theimposition of tariffs of this magnitude would substantially reduce, or possiblyeliminate, Ireland-UK trade in some products.” “据估计将英国的全球关税计划应用于爱尔兰对英国的出口将导致13.5至15亿欧元之间的关税成本。征收如此规模的关税将大大减少或可能消除爱尔兰-英国在某些产品上的贸易。”

—— Exports  出口 ——

According to the CentralBank, Irish exports “remained remarkably resilient throughout the secondquarter, and the peak of the pandemic.”根据中央银行的说法，爱尔兰的出口“在整个第二季度，以及疫情高峰时期都保持强劲。”

Thelatest data reveals that Irish exports fell by just 0.2% in the second quarterof the year, despite an expected 19% decline in global demand.最新数据显示今年第二季度爱尔兰出口仅下降0.2%，尽管全球需求预计将下降19%。

However,this figure “masks significant divergent trends”, the Central Bank warns.然而央行警告称这一数字“掩盖了趋势巨大的不同”。

Exportsof Irish goods increased by 7.6%, while exports of services fell by8.1%.  爱尔兰商品出口增长7.6%，服务出口下降8.1%。

Thestrong performance in the first category is chalked up to the increased demandfor pharmaceutical goods produced in Ireland.第一类产品的强劲表现是由于对爱尔兰药品的需求增加。

Accordingto the Central Bank, “pharmaceutical products alone accounted for 38% of totalmerchandise exports in the second quarter of 2020.” 据中央银行称，“仅医药产品就占2020年第二季度商品出口总额的38%。”

“Oneproduct type — ‘immunological products, put up in measured doses or in forms orpackings for retail sale’ — accounted for approximately 12% oftotal merchandise exports.”“以剂量形式或包装进行零售免疫产品约占商品出口总额的12%。”

Overall,exports of those products increase by 41% in the second quarter of the year,compared to the same period last year.总体而言与去年同期相比第二季度这些产品的出口增长了41%。

Salesof computer services also remained resilient, 58% of total services exports inthe second quarter. 计算机服务的销售也保持弹性，占第二季度服务出口总额的58%。

Withoutthis, the 8.1% decline in services exports would have been even greater,according to the analysis.，根据分析如果没有这些，服务业出口下降将超过8.1%。

—— Consumer spending 消费支出 ——

“Comparedto our previous bulletin in July,” Cassidy said, “we now have quite a lot ofofficial and real-time data to inform our assessment of how the virus hasimpacted the economy and the extent to which we have already rebounded.” 卡西迪说：“与我们7月份的前一份公报相比，我们现在有大量官方和实时数据用来评估病毒如何影响经济以及经济反弹的程度。”

Thatdata reveals that consumer spending fell by 22.8% in the second quarter of theyear during the national lockdown.这一数据显示在今年第二季度全国封锁期间消费者支出下降了22.8%。

Cassidysaid that real-time indicators such as retail sales and card payment data showa significant improvement in the second half of the year so far.卡西迪表示零售额和刷卡支付数据等实时指标显示下半年至今有明显改善。

InAugust, spending on transport and accommodation remained far below pre-Covidlevels but some sectors had recovered fully or even experienced an increase. 8月交通和住宿方面的支出仍远低于前《气候变化框架公约》的水平，但一些部门已完全恢复甚至出现增长。

Havingfallen in April by 38% following the closure of all non-essential shops,hardware sales were 34% higher in August than before the pandemic.在所有非必需商店关闭后，4月份的销售额下降了38%，8月份的硬件销售额比疫情开始前高了34%。