海外邦

2020年对于航空业是空前困难的一年。受新冠疫情的影响，国际旅行停滞不前。根据国际航空运输协会（IATA）的预测，今年全球客运量将下降66％。

2020 has been a year of unprecedented diffi­culty for the airline industry as the coronavi­rus pandemic has brought international travel to a standstill. Passenger traffic for the year is forecast to decline 66%, according to the In­ternational Air Transport Association (IATA).

“航班连续停运好几个月真的是前所未有的情况，”美联航大中华及韩国地区董事总经理Walter Dias说到， “现在航线重新开放，在相关部门监管下，我们的航班也在增加。”

“It's really an unprecedented situation with flights being suspended for months on end,” says Walter Dias, Managing Director of Greater China and Korea – Sales for United Airlines. “And now we’re starting to see some reopening of the flights and through the reg­ulatory bodies starting the flights back up.”

目前美联航在中美间的运力仅达到2019年的5％至6％，这意味着美联航仍面临着艰巨挑战。但是，由于中美两国在商业、旅游业、文化等方面都有着密切的联系，加上美联航在中国市场多年的经营历史，随着航空旅行市场逐渐恢复，美联航也有望在此基础上强势反弹。

Since United is operating at roughly just 5 to 6% of 2019's capacity between the US and China, the situation is unusually challenging. However, strong business, tourism, and cul­tural links between the US and China, as well as United’s longstanding presence in the Chi­na market, provide the Chicago-based airline with a strong foundation from which to build as the air travel market slowly recovers.

截至今年10月，中国和亚太地区的其他一些国家已经实现了对疫情的有效控制，但世界其他地方的感染率仍在上升。新冠病毒的顽固性让我们难以预测疫情何时结束，以及国际航空旅行的复苏前景。

As of October, China and some other countries in the Asia-Pacific region have managed to get the pandemic under con­trol, but elsewhere in the world infection rates are still ticking upwards. The impla­cable nature of the virus makes forecasting an end to the pandemic – and a revival of international air travel – difficult, to say the least.

不过，中国的抗疫经验是值得借鉴的。Dias说：“中国在全球疫情复苏中处于领先地位。因为中国是第一个陷入这场危机的国家，也是第一个将这场危机控制住的国家。”他指出，中国的国内航空已迅速复苏，到9月已达到其2019年运力的80％，预计到年底将恢复到100％的运力和数量。

China's experience may be instructive though. “China is ahead of the curve on this piece of the recovery, because China was the first one into the crisis and the first one out of it,” Dias says. He notes that China’s domestic aviation sector has recovered swiftly, reaching 80% of its 2019 capacity by September and is expected to be back to 100% capacity and volume by year-end.

他补充说：“这些数据是十分鼓舞人心的，因为一旦美国的疫情得到控制，我们可以从中国的经验来预测美国航空市场的发展。”

“That’s very encouraging, because I’d use China as a proxy for how the US mar­ket will react once the outbreak is under control in the US,” he adds.

今年4月，中国超越美国成为全球最大的航空市场，提早实现了人们的预期。此前，国际航空运输协会（IATA）预测，到2024年，中国将成为全球最大的航空市场。一旦疫情退潮，美国仍可能暂时夺回全球航空产业的头把交椅，但可能也难以再长期占据头筹。

In April, China surpassed the US to become the world’s largest aviation market, fulfilling a long-anticipated pre­diction earlier than expected. IATA had forecast China would become the world's top aviation market by seats in 2024. The US may still recover the top spot tempo­rarily once the pandemic ebbs, but likely not for long.

无论如何，在可预见的将来，中美两国将成为世界上最大的两个航空市场。对于总部位于美国，在中国拥有大量业务的美联航而言，这提供了许多机会。

Regardless, together the US and China will be the world’s two largest aviation markets for the foreseeable future. For United Airlines, based in the US and with a large presence in China, that presents a plethora of opportunities.

2019年，有283万中国人访问美国，使中国成为美国第五大外国游客来源国。中国赴美游客在逗留期间的平均消费为6,700美元，远高于一般海外游客的4,200美元。

In 2019, 2.83 million Chinese visited the United States, making China the US’s fifth-largest source of foreign visitors. Chinese visitors to America spend on average US$6,700 during their stay, well above the US$4,200 spent by the typical visitor from overseas.

中国幅员辽阔，市场仍有很大的增长空间。“每年有将近300万中国游客来到美国，如果其他国家达到这个体量就已经可以称为成熟市场了，但是我相信，我们在中国仍然有很广阔的市场可以挖掘。”Dias说。

China’s vast size means that there is plenty of room for growth. “Nearly three million visitors from China to the US – for any other market that would be consid­ered mature. But, we’re still scratching the surface, I believe,” Dias says.

随着长途航空旅行的逐步回归，美联航将计划利用波音787的独特优势，打造更多像“成都-旧金山”这样的长途直达航线。

As long-haul air travel gradually returns, United Airlines will be looking to capitalize on the unique strengths of the Boeing 787. As a result, routes like Chengdu-San Francisco non­stop are now feasible.

中国有包括成都在内的16个二线（“新一线”）城市。Dias预计，随着中国航空市场的持续增长，将会有更多从二线城市飞往全球各地的直飞航班。

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. China has 16 secondary (“New Tier 1”) cities including Chengdu. Dias expects that as China's aviation market contin­ues to grow, there will be more nonstop service from its secondary cities to desti­nations worldwide.

他还认为，美国仍会长期保持对中国顾客的吸引力。“我们在中国设立销售团队的独特之处在于，我们不仅在创造美联航的营业额，同时也代表着美国，也在宣传美国的独特风光。”

He also believes that the US will re­main a destination of enduring attraction for Chinese customers. “The unique thing about having the United sales team in China is that we’re out there selling United Airlines. But at the same time, we’re also ambassadors for the US, and really pro­moting these destinations or experiences that are unique to the US.”

他总结道：“正因为美国有太多的迷人之处，我仍然乐观地认为，尽管航空业目前正面临着严峻的挑战，但从长远来看，中美之间的国际航运仍会长足发展。”

He concludes: “And that’s one of the reasons I’m still optimistic that the num­bers will continue to grow in the long term despite the fact that the industry is facing tough challenges right now, just because there are so many unique things that America has to offer.”