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汇丰近日公布了2019年市场和经济将面临的10大风险，贸易紧张形势和美联储升息等都位列其中。与野村的灰天鹅事件预测一样，这些都是意外事件的预测，而不是对可能发生事件的预期。

原标题：HSBC: These 10 risks could throw the markets and economy for a loop in 2019

在市场波动性加剧、美中贸易紧张形势升温以及美联储货币政策正常化的一年临近尾声之际，汇丰公布报告列出了2019年市场和经济面临的10大风险。
After a year marked by the return of volatility in the marketplace, heightened trade tensions between the US and trading partners, and the Federal Reserve’s path to normalize monetary policy, HSBC released a report on Tuesday which list the items as the top 10 risks facing the market and the economy in 2019.

贸易紧张形势、气候变化的影响、美国企业债务处在纪录高位、以及美联储升息都位列其中。
Some of the items HSBC listed were trade tensions, impact from climate change, corporate debt at an all-time high，and the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates.

“这些都是风险，不是预期，而且有可能没有一个会成真，但这些都是一些可能让人感到意外的事情，”汇丰策略师和经济分析师在这份报告中称。
“These are possibilities, not forecasts, and none might come to pass, but they are all things that could spring a surprise,” strategists and economists at the London-based bank said in the report.

根据汇丰报告编制下表，让您一眼看清10大风险。

以下为英文全文

贸易紧张形势消除“Trade tensions end”

贸易紧张形势消除可能会提振投资者信心，并将对全球经济、尤其是中国经济成长预期产生积极影响。
Risk: “An end of trade tensions could boost investor sentiment and would have a positive impact on growth expectations and on China in particular,” HSBC wrote.

增长预期和冒险意愿将影响汇率，人民币可能将扳回2018年录得的部分失地。Investment implications: “Growth expectations and ‘risk-on’ will impact FX,” the strategists said. “The [Chinese yuan] would likely retrace some of the depreciation seen in 2018.”

美联储继续升息“The Fed keeps hiking”

汇丰预计美联储2019年6月前将再升息三次。但核心通胀可能会加快，菲利普斯曲线将趋陡，导致美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)改变立场。
Risk: “We expect three more Fed hikes until June 2019. But core inflation could accelerate and the Phillips curve steepen, leading to a change in the [Federal Open Market Committee’s] stance,” they said.

如果美联储升息次数超过点阵图所暗示的，对美元的提振将是巨大的。汇丰预计美国两年期公债和信贷将承压。
Investment implication: “Were the Fed to deliver more than implied by the dots, the boost to the [US dollar] would be sizeable,” HSBC’s strategists wrote. “We think UST2y and US Credit would be under pressure.”

欧元区危机2.0“Eurozone crisis 2.0”

如果刺激措施是必要的，欧元区或许在这一年遇到（可能导致分裂的）领导层更迭问题。
Risk: “If stimulus is needed, the eurozone may have a problem in a year of (possibly disruptive) leadership changes,” the authors wrote.

在这样的环境下，欧元兑美元将接近平价。(英镑)将面临巨大的不确定性，因为脱离欧盟后进行贸易谈判将变得更加困难。
Investment implications: “The EUR would get close to parity with the USD in such a scenario,” they said. “[The pound] would face great uncertainty as the post Brexit trade negotiations will be more difficult.”

欧洲央行启动新一轮非常规政策“The ECB initiates new unconventional policies”

欧洲央行或许会在采用负利率的情况下进入下一个经济低迷时期。
Risk: “The ECB might enter the next downturn with negative rates,” they wrote.

（欧元）可能将走低，因预计欧洲央行将宣布新一轮宽松举措。
Investment implication: “The [euro] would likely weaken in anticipation of the announcement of a new round of easing measures,” the strategists added.

新兴市场改革“EM reform surprises”

进入2019年，汇丰仍对新兴市场持普遍谨慎的态度，因金融环境紧缩，而且贸易冲突持续不断。但如果新兴市场聚焦于结构性改革来解决失衡问题，提高生产率和效率呢？
Risk: “We remain broadly cautious on emerging markets going into 2019 given the tightening in financial conditions and enduring trade conflicts,” they added. “But what if EMs start focusing on structural reforms to address their imbalances, boost productivity, and improve efficiency?”

财政改革应该会利好新兴市场固定收益市场。如果可信，改革也将导致新兴市场“利差交易”货币强劲上涨。
Investment implication: “Fiscal reforms should be positive for EM fixed income markets,” HSBC’s strategists said. “If credible, a reform wave would also lead to a strong rally in EM ‘carry’ currencies.”

为(气候变化)影响做准备“Brace for (climate) impact”

极端天气造成的损失将变得更加巨大，影响也更为严重。灾害损失正在影响发达市场，而不只是新兴市场。2019年市场有可能会对气候变化做出不利反应。
Risk: “Extreme climate events are becoming more costly and more visible,” according to the strategists. “Damage costs are impacting DM regions, not just EM. Risk of adverse market reaction to climate events in 2019.”

气候变化造成的损失将更加明显，一系列广泛的证券都将受到影响。需要进行投资以为应对气候变化影响做好准备，全面的准备成本高昂。
Investment implications: “As climate change damage costs become evident, a wide range of securities could be impacted,” the authors wrote. “Preparing for climate impacts will need investment and full preparedness is expensive.”

美国企业利润下滑“US corporate margins fall”

利润率一直是美国企业获利的重要推动力。企业利润率目前处于纪录高位，市场普遍预计还将继续上升。但包括薪资上涨、关税和融资成本在内的成本上升都可能使美企利润率下降。
Risk: “Profit margins have been the key driver of US earnings. Corporate profit margins are at an all-time high and consensus expects them to move up further,” HSBC noted. “But rising costs, including wage growth, trade tariffs and financing cost could bring them down next year.”

薪资增长快于预期可能会导致企业获利明显低于预估，并使股市脱离牛市行情。
Investment implication: “Faster than expected wage growth could cause a significant miss to earnings estimates and derail the equity bull market,” they said.

杠杆风险和粉饰账面“Leverage risks and accounting tactics”

美国非金融公司债务处于纪录高位，投资级债券的平均信用评级急剧下降。
Risk: “US nonfinancial corporate debt is at its all-time high and average credit ratings of investment grade debt have fallen sharply,” they wrote.

面对经济低迷时期借贷成本增加和营业利润可能下降的双重挑战，企业或许会禁不住采用粉饰账面的手段。
Investment implication: “Corporates facing the combined challenge of the increased cost of borrowing and potentially lower operating profits in an economic downturn, might be tempted to make more aggressive accounting judgements and decisions,” HSBC’s strategists said.

信贷市场若大跌，将缺少买家“No bid in a credit sell-off”

企业债仍是一个流动性结构性匮乏的资产。
Risk: “Corporate bonds remain a structurally illiquid asset class,” they said.

在信贷市场出现大规模抛售的情况下，投资者能够出手的数量有限。
Investment implication: “In a sharp credit sell-off, there will be a limit to how much investors could sell,” HSBC warned.

固定收益市场波动性回升？“Fixed income volatility comes back?”

各国央行行动和民间部门的强化收益率策略已使利率波动性持续受到抑制。考虑到全球储备流不断减少，这种趋势可能会改变。
Risk: “Central Banks’ actions and private sector’s yield enhancement strategies have kept interest rate vol subdued,” the strategists said. “With global reserves flow shrinking, there is a risk the trend may change.”

如果固定收益市场波动性真的上升，其他资产的波动性可能将回升，因为处在低位且较为稳定的长期实质利率一直是风险资产表现的关键决定因素。
Investment implication: “If fixed income volatility does rise, vol is likely to pick-up in other asset classes as low and stable long-end real rates have been a key determinant of performance of risky assets,” they worried.

文章来源于网络：文|Business Insider，图|路透